Anyone paying attention knows that affordability is a real concern. But there is one sector already showing the potential to throw our economy into a tailspin: housing.
When I moved to Texas in 2015, the average cost of a home was around $200,000. Politicians liked to brag about Californians fleeing liberal policies, but that was never the real story. Even back then, the average California home cost close to $500,000, with 1950s-era houses selling for a million or more. People weren’t leaving because of politics — they were leaving because of prices.
Fast forward to today: the average Texas home costs around $350,000.
And buyers are older. The average first-time homebuyer is now 40 years old. Ten years ago, it was the low to mid‑thirties. People simply can’t afford to buy homes until much later in life. It takes two incomes, and even then, many households are stretched thin.
We’ve seen this movie before. The last housing bubble burst because lenders pushed buyers into homes beyond their means. That collapse began in 2007 and dragged on for six years. When we bought our home in 2014, the entire subdivision was empty lots. We paid $317,000, and even then I worried about the price. Today, after protesting the appraisal, my home is valued at $480,000 — for a 2,200‑square‑foot ranch on a golf course.
But here’s the alarming trend: in my subdivision of maybe 75 to 100 homes, the larger houses — the ones listed at $650,000 and up — are not selling. The only homes moving are those $500,000 and under. A house four doors down from mine, also on the golf course, has been on the market for nearly a year with multiple price drops.
High prices are only half the problem. High interest rates are the other. A buyer looking at that $650,000 home would face over $4,000 a month in mortgage payments even after putting 10% down. Add car payments, childcare, and everyday expenses, and the math simply doesn’t work for most families.
Labor shortages make the situation worse. Our home was built entirely by Mexican craftsmen — skilled workers who did beautiful work. Many of those same workers are no longer here, having been deported or having left out of fear of deportation. Builders today struggle to find enough skilled labor, and when they do, they face higher material costs driven by inflation and tariffs.
The last housing crisis lasted six years. The next one has already started. And based on what I’m seeing in my own neighborhood, I predict we’ll start feeling the economic fallout as early as November.