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The Stock Market Crash of 2019

The day after Trump was elected, I sold 90% of my stock holdings. The Dow Jones was hovering just under 20,000. Since then, the stock market has been on a mostly upward trend with DOW 27,000 in view. Had I stayed in, I would have earned more than what I made through other investment such as CD’s, money market funds, cash, and bonds. Still, I made some positive moves. I sold half of my American Airlines stock at $42 a share. The stock today is at $29. More importantly, I slept well, knowing that my retirement savings were safe.

I’ll be the first to admit that I’m no stock expert. Over the last two-and-a-half years, I have slowly gone in and out of the market, with lousy timing each time. Even the experts will tell you that you can’t time the market. But I’m about to do just that. I predict a decline in the market of 30% to 40%. I also predict that this decline will begin in October of this year.

I talked about some of my reasoning in the post The Coming Economic Storm. In that post, I gave a few reasons for my skepticism: The historic stock market run, the fact that there has been a recession in the first term of every Republican President going back to Theodore Rosevelt, and most significantly an ineffective government. The latter being the gravest concern. Now that Trump is behind in the polls and has a dismal approval rating, his worst instincts will be on full display. Trump will take any short term gain if he thinks it will help his reelection chances regardless of the long term consequences. Just look at our ballooning debt crisis.

Why October? Next month we will learn from third-quarter numbers that the economy is slowing and on a downward trend. Investigations into Trump’s many misdeeds will begin in earnest next month, and the details of obstruction, tax dodges, money laundering, campaign finance violations, and other criminal acts will be exposed. October has also been a bad month for stocks historically. Some of the worst downturns have begun in October – 1929, 1987, 1997, 2002, 2007. And then there is Trump himself. He wants so badly to get something positive under his belt that he will do or say just about anything to turn the tide, such as making a bad deal with Iran or China or stealing military money to build a few miles of a useless border wall.

So here is my prediction. By early October the stock market may rise to 29,000 or higher due to temporary moves by team Trump to manipulate the market, such as announcing a deal with China, that will later turn out to be untrue or overhyped. By late October the storm clouds will be gathering, and we will be well on our way to DOW 17,000 or lower.

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Review of What the Eyes Don’t See

Review of What the Eyes Don’t See: A Story of Crisis, Resistance, and Hope in an American City by Mona Hanna-Attisha Rating *****

This book is living proof that one person can make a difference. Had it not been for the dogged persistence of Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha, a national health crisis may have been allowed to continue unabated.

There are so many lessons to be learned from this story. It touches on a wide array of themes: immigration, politics, science, environmental issues, poverty, race, and much more.

Author Mona Hanna-Attisha is a pediatrician. She had heard second-hand of problems with the drinking water in Flint, Michigan. It wasn’t until she noticed a spike in lead levels of children under her care that alarm bells starting going off. Those early warning signs set her on a mission to not only identify the source of the high levels of lead in children’s blood tests but also to suggest what course of action to take to help alleviate the problem.

The response to the crisis by those in a position to make the necessary changes was appalling. Almost everyone failed the people of Flint. This failure included the EPA, the water regulating agency, local officials, and Governor Rick Snyder. In some cases, their failures involved fraud and misinformation. Even after blood tests confirmed high lead levels, government officials resisted suggested changes, disputed scientific findings, and went out of their way to discredit the work of Dr. Hanna-Attisha. Why? Certainly, the cost of fixing the problem was an issue. There is, however, no excuse to put money over the health of citizens.

Flint is not alone in dealing with lead in drinking water. Just recently, health officials discovered high blood levels in the children of Newark New Jersey. The same problem afflicted the citizens of Washington, D.C. The issue of lead contamination in drinking water can occur almost anywhere where lead pipes carry water, which is the case in many older communities across the country.

The officials who caused and ignored the problem faced civil and criminal charges. But other than losing their jobs, no one has been held accountable.

Don’t buy the argument that it is possible to protect the environment while also reducing regulations. Polluters will always put profits over environmental protections.

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Review of Inside the Death Fences

Inside the Death Fences: Memoir of a Whistleblower
Rating *** 1/2

Much has been written about the broken criminal justice system. Our prisons are overflowing due to a laundry list of problems such as inequities in sentencing, three-strike laws, overly strict probation rules, and much more. This book looks at the correctional system from the perspective of a prison employee, a teacher.

One thing you should know at the outset is that the author met and married her husband, who was and still is an inmate in the Missouri correctional system. That story unfolds halfway in to this part memoir, part whistleblower, part revenge tale. The revenge part has to do with the author’s resignation and efforts by prison administrators to separate her and her future husband.

The early chapters come across a bit like the rants of a disgruntled employee. It’s not until the final chapters that you learn that there is a much larger picture involving corruption and mismanagement. It would have been better to frame the book with the author’s testimony before Missouri legislators. Those early chapters were like reading a script of The Real Housewives after they had been drinking all night.

The author redeems herself in the final pages, where she highlights the many problems with understaffed, underpaid, rural prisons. The truth is that somewhere along the way prisons have become a place for punishment and not rehabilitation.

This book is a valuable resource for anyone working or considering working in the penal system or for those who have an interest in what takes place behind prison walls.

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American Factory Quick Take

American Factory Directors Steven Bognar and Julia Rechert
Rating *****

This documentary is jammed pack with relevant content: the decline of factory jobs, culture differences between China and America, an argument for unions, and the role of automation in job replacement.

This is the first film from the Obamas Netflix deal. It’s not political except to point out the many complexities facing world economies and trade deals.

The film starts out with the impact that a GM plant closing has on the workers and the surrounding community of Dayton, Ohio. After eight plus years of blight, hope appears in the form of a Chines automotive glass company called Fuyao. The CEO of the company promises to revitalize the community with jobs. Thousands of workers are hired. They are trained by Chinese employees from a sister plant in China.

The Chinese managers and Fuyao CEO quickly form an impression of American Workers as lazy and hard to manage. The American workers, on the other hand, soon realize that the promised jobs pay only $12 an hour, more than half what they earned with GM. The work is tedious and in some cases unsafe.

To help expedite the training, a number of American workers fly to China to see how the workers there perform the same jobs. This is where the stark differences between China and America stand out. The Chinese employees work 12 hour days with only two days off a month. They work in unsafe conditions. They sing songs about the company and march as if they are in the military as opposed to working for a company.

This is life in a communist country. Children grow up with absentee parents. Workers have no voice. Industry pollutes the air, water, and land with impunity.

I belong to a union. This film shows the important role unions play in a worker’s pay, benefits, and working conditions. Unions give workers a voice.

The answer the Chinese find for their hard to manage American workers is to fire union organizers, then replace as many as possible with automation.

Are you a nonfiction fan? Do you enjoy learning about new nonfiction books, films, and documentaries? If so, I can use your help. Please share the articles posted here on your social media sites. This site averages about thirty unique visitors a day, but the number of followers on Facebook and Twitter are embarrassingly low. So, please help spread the word by liking us on Facebook, following us on Twitter, and sharing these posts with the share buttons below. Thanks.

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Review of the Free Meek Docuseries

Rating *****

Meek Mill attends the world premiere of Amazon Prime Video’s “Free Meek” limited documentary series at the Ziegfeld Ballroom on Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019, in New York. (Photo by Jason Mendez/Invision/AP)

You do not have to be a fan of Rap music to enjoy this compelling expose of our broken criminal justice system. For all the ” he got what he deserves” critics out there, you have no clue what you’re talking about.

I was aware of some of the facts surrounding this story. I knew that Meek Mill was a rapper imprisoned due to a technical violation of his probation. I didn’t know the details of his original conviction or the story of his eleven-year odyssey. This excellent five-part docuseries fills in the gaps while also exposing issues such as mass incarceration, problems with the probations system, plea deals, inequities with the bail system, ineffective counsel, and crooked cops.

I had planned on watching each episode over a series of nights. I ended up binging on all five. Each episode ends with a cliffhanger.

One of the most glaring anomalies about Meek’s case is the actions of Judge Genece Brinkley. This one-woman wrecking ball is the poster- child for injustice. The only rationale I could come up with for her mean-spirited decisions is that she was infatuated with Meek Mills. She certainly wasn’t motivated by a sense of fairness. How many other poor souls are wasting away because of her decisions?

When the tables are finally turned on Judge Genece Brinkley and the detectives that started the whole mess, there is a sense of redemption, even though the saga is not entirely over for Meek Mills.

My only complaint is that the filmmakers glossed over one crucial fact. The case against Meek Mills starts with the suspicion of drug activity at the house were Meek Mills was staying with extended family. The detectives involved were allegedly not so much interested in disrupting drug activity as they were in robbing suspected drug dealers of money. According to Meek’s cousins, the detectives found some thirty-thousand dollars in cash at the residence, which they did not report. The filmmakers did not explain how and why there were thirty-thousand dollars in a home in a poor neighborhood stashed away in plastic bags.

Not everyone has the resources and support that Meek Mill had. Still, his case highlights the need for criminal justice reform. The reality is that there are millions of people caught up in a system that wants to penalize people indefinitely.

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Review of Bryan Banks

Review of Bryan Banks written by Doug Atchison and directed by Tom Shadyac rating *****

I followed this story when it first broke. I knew then that it had the makings of a great film. A high school athlete on a fast track to college football and the NFL is accused of rape. He is sent to prison. His hopes and dreams are stolen. Once out of prison, life is no easier. He is a convicted felon. He is a registered sex offender. He is on probation. Everything changes when the accuser reaches out on Facebook.

This film uses Bryan’s story to highlight many of the problems with the criminal justice system. Bryan Banks was black and did not have the resources to go up against a criminal justice system stacked against him. His lawyer convinced him to take a plea rather than face the possibility of decades behind bars. He did not know the consequences of that action.

Being a convicted felon and a registered sex offender is perhaps the most oppressing circumstance one can find themselves in. Add to this the scrutiny of the probation system, and it becomes nearly impossible for someone to climb back out. Bryan’s only chance is to prove his innocence and have his conviction overturned. That glimmer of hope presents itself when the accuser reaches out to him on social media.

The story of what happens next is a story of people in positions of power doing the right thing. It doesn’t always happen like this.

Aldis Hodge as Bryan Banks and Greg Kinnear as the lawyer who helps overturn the conviction do justice to the real life people they portray.

This is an uplifting film worth your time.

Are you a nonfiction fan? Do you enjoy learning about new nonfiction books, films, and documentaries? If so, I can use your help. Please share the articles posted here on your social media sites. This site averages about thirty unique visitors a day, but the number of followers on Facebook and Twitter are embarrassingly low. So, please help spread the word. Thanks.